The Ukraine war is often framed as an existential struggle whose outcome will determine whether Europe can stand strong against Russia. In reality, the success of both Europe’s and Ukraine’s ability to push back against Moscow may be decided not on the battlefield but at the ballot box. In the next few years, strong showings by Germany’s AfD and France’s National Rally could crimp the EU’s ability to bankroll Kyiv and weaken its resolve to rearm in preparation for a worst‑case scenario with Russia.
Both parties cultivate unusually warm relationships with Moscow. AfD figures have traveled to Russia for high‑profile events, meeting sanctioned officials and calling for renewed energy ties. The National Rally received a 9‑million-euro loan from a Russian‑linked bank in 2014, and Marine Le Pen has long argued for rapprochement with the Kremlin. Both parties criticize EU sanctions on Russia, framing them as economically self‑defeating and politically misguided.
Their Russia‑friendly posture dovetails with a deep aversion to the EU. The AfD has formally endorsed “Dexit” if Brussels cannot be reshaped to match its priorities. The National Rally has softened its earlier “Frexit” demand but still calls for radical treaty renegotiation, full border control, and the primacy of national law over EU law.
Recent polling shows National Rally leading French presidential surveys by a wide margin heading into the 18 April 2027 election, while AfD sits at or near first place in several eastern German states ahead of Germany’s early‑2029 federal vote. As president, Le Pen could use France’s veto power to stall sanctions, military‑aid packages, and joint defense decisions for Ukraine, while reducing French participation in EU and NATO rearmament programs. And even if AfD remains isolated at the federal level, strong results in eastern state elections would embolden the party’s national influence, intensifying pressure against arms spending and support for Ukraine.
Is it any wonder President Putin is playing for time?
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