For all the firepower the US is bringing to its assault on Iran, neither side may emerge as the clear victor. But the conflict is already producing winners and losers.
Saudi Arabia is a clear winner. With Tehran on the defensive militarily, economically, and psychologically, the Saudis find themselves free to move ahead with economic transformation at home, strategic leadership in the Gulf, and a freer hand in shaping the region’s security architecture. Even if it will not eliminate Tehran as a strategic rival, the war will sharply reduce its ability to challenge Riyadh for influence and leadership in the region.
Israel sees the existential threat presented by Iran as weaker than it has been since the early 2000s, when Tehran’s nuclear program accelerated and before its regional proxy network matured into a coherent “axis of resistance.” Iran’s weakness strengthens Israel’s regional military and economic clout and may open new diplomatic avenues for closer relations with Arab countries once the dust settles in Lebanon.
Russia’s influence in the region is further eroding as Iran, its ally, reels from the US assault. But the war benefits Moscow, as well. With Washington’s attention and resources focused on Iran, Ukraine will receive fewer weapons, fewer headlines, and less support, even from those in Congress who have called for more backing of Kyiv. We might even see President Trump’s ambivalence swing fully to back Moscow as a way of ending a war he increasingly considers a distraction. That would leave the European Union to shoulder the burden of supporting Ukraine alone and strengthen those EU voices advocating for an end to bankrolling Kyiv.
The international credibility stakes are high for the United States if the conflict continues without a clear plan and ends with the clerical regime still standing. And at home, the war is already costing support for President Trump from those in the MAGA wing who voted for him on his promise of no more foreign wars.
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