For all the talk of greatpower competition in the Arctic, President Trump’s fixation on
acquiring Greenland has produced a strategic outcome that benefits only one capital —
and it’s not Washington. By elevating Greenland from a quiet corner of the North Atlantic
to a geopolitical flashpoint, the administration has delivered Moscow something it has
sought for decades: the very likely breakup of NATO.
Trump’s argument for renewed U.S. interest in Greenland has rested heavily on
warnings of Russian and Chinese interest. Yet European officials, Danish defense
authorities, and NATO monitors have repeatedly said they have seen no evidence of the
threats invoked. Trump claims the threat of foreign intrusion is very real. It’s not
surprising from this president that the claim is not supported by facts.
The consequences of his pressure campaign are very real. Trump is risking the future of
NATO, an alliance formed in 1949 as a check to Moscow’s strivings for hegemony. At
best, negotiations between Washington and European NATO members will help patch
up the dispute, though even then, it will exacerbate Europe’s already strong distrust of
the US administration. At worst, the still unthinkable: Armed conflict. Even one shot fired
over Greenland would cripple, if not end, the alliance. Either outcome would not only
greatly increase President Putin’s influence in Ukraine but also his appetite for further
conquest, first for the other former Soviet republics and then the rest of Europe.
The value of a divided NATO thus far exceeds any hypothetical military advantage in the
Arctic for Putin. Since the alliance’s founding, Moscow has sought to weaken the
cohesion that underpins its power to deter Russian aggression. The Greenland episode
has not only given Putin a diplomatic opening it could not create on its own. It has led to
an unthinkable scenario just a few weeks ago: a Europe fighting for survival against two
world powers, including the one that, up to last year, used to be its strongest ally.
While the Arctic remains quiet, the irony is hard to miss. In claiming imagined threats
from Russia and China, the Trump administration has advanced one of Russia’s oldest
ambitions: a weakened and divided NATO whose breakup could change the world order.
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